September 29th, 2009
A guild uses basic /random to distribute loot. There are three tanks in the raid: Wendy the Warrior; Daisy the Death Knight; and Patricia the Paladin. All three tanks desire [Ciderhelm's Ring of Effective Health], and it drops in tonight’s raid.
Scenario 1: Straight Roll
All three tanks roll on the ring:
| Rolls (H to L) | Winner |
|---|---|
| W, D, P | Wendy |
| W, P, D | Wendy |
| D, W, P | Daisy |
| D, P, W | Daisy |
| P, W, D | Patricia |
| P, D, W | Patricia |
Each tank has a 33% chance of winning the item. I think we can all agree that this is as fair as it gets, absent any other information.
Senario 2: Passing
Wendy and Daisy are best friends. Wendy thinks that Daisy is a little undergeared, and she resolves to pass to Daisy if she can. (By passing, I mean Wendy chooses to nullify her roll if and only if Daisy is the second-highest roller.)
Potential outcomes:
| Rolls (H to L) | Winner |
|---|---|
| W, D, P | Daisy(!!) |
| W, P, D | Wendy |
| D, W, P | Daisy |
| D, P, W | Daisy |
| P, W, D | Patricia |
| P, D, W | Patricia |
Is this fair to Patricia?
My first thought is to say that it is not fair. But then I considered some more.
On the one hand, Daisy now has a 50% chance to get the item while Patricia only has a 33%. That doesn’t really seem fair. But on the other hand, note that in both scenarios, Patricia has the exact same chance to win the item. Her chance to win the item doesn’t change at all. It’s not less likely that she will get the item.
So what is fair? Does fairness depend on only your own chances to win? Or is your position relative to others important as well?
I am not really sure anymore. If the probability of Patricia winning the item decreased, that would be absolutely unfair (under the given conditions). But if the probability doesn’t change, fairness seems harder to determine.
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